By MICHAEL NOYES
BOZEMAN – Financial experts giving a midyear update on economic recovery in Montana said incoming financial trends show mixed signals.
While several economic indicators have been revised down from earlier predictions, Montana Chamber of Commerce President Webb Brown said the national Chamber recently designated Montana as having the No. 1 entrepreneurial climate in the nation.
“There are plenty of mixed signals out there,” Brown said.
The event at the Best Western GranTree Inn in Bozeman on Wednesday morning is one of a series of events being held around the state this week. “Montana’s Economic Recovery: Making Sense of Mixed Signals” is sponsored by the Montana Chamber Foundation and the University of Montana Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Bureau Director Patrick Barkey said Montana’s economic trends have largely mirrored the national economy.
“We certainly haven’t escaped this recession,” but it hasn’t been a first in, last out scenario either, Barkey said.
Employment growth both in the nation and in the state have turned positive, but “barely,” he said. A spurt of economic growth at the beginning of the year has leveled off and consumer confidence continues to be weak.
Large businesses and corporations are leading in growth, but Barkey said small businesses are still missing in action.
A review of various industries showed construction businesses have been hit particularly hard.
“There’s really no rebound in sight.”
Barkey also touched on government spending, saying no new federal stimulus dollars are coming. At the state level, “we think there’s going to be significant cuts ahead.”
Former Bureau Director Paul Polzin gave a review of local economic trends and said Gallatin County has fared relatively well compared with other counties. That’s because employment sectors outside of the construction industry have not been hit as hard as what some other counties have experienced, he said.
A few dozen people attended the Bozeman event. During the question and answer session one audience member asked why economists were continually revising their estimates in a downward pattern.
Polzin said economists make estimates based on available information based on a sample and that actual numbers have been more bleak than expected.
“Did the whole profession miss this recession?” he said. “You got it.”

For more on this story, including discussion of a possible public employee strike, see The Flint Report’s coverage of the Tuesday session in Billings here.